🏈 Not the Same Old Cowboys
They are a complete team.
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🎯 How About These Cowboys?
The Dallas Cowboys have not won a Super Bowl since the 1995 NFL season, but they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders this year.
🥊 KO class: The Cowboys embarrassed the Giants in Game 1 with a historic 40-0 beatdown, the largest shutout win in team history. Dallas won the sack battle 7-0, won the turnover battle 3-0, blocked a field goal, and had a pick-6. It's only one game, but it made a statement.
💪 Getting stronger: The Cowboys had one of the NFL’s most well-rounded teams last year. They finished top-5 in run and pass defense and top 12 in run and pass offense per EPA. Dak Prescott finished top-10 in EPA. Ezekiel Elliott, who was let go, was one of the most obvious pieces holding this team back. Replacing him in the lead role is Tony Pollard, who finished last season third in percentage of runs over 15 yards and third in yards after contact. The Cowboys also upgraded at wide receiver by trading for Brandin Cooks. They're more complete now.
🔥 Elite defense squared: The Cowboys' biggest weakness was depth in the secondary, which they addressed by signing Stephon Gilmore, who graded out as the sixth-best coverage cornerback by Pro Football Focus in 2022 and already has one interception as a Cowboy. The Cowboys are top-5 in every advanced metric, and Dan Quinn's defense should live up to that billing again.
🍿 Question marks: The biggest concern for the Cowboys comes on the offensive side of the ball. Head coach Mike McCarthy is calling plays for their "Texas Coast Offense" with new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer replacing Kellen Moore. We still don't know if Dak Prescott can play under pressure. There are also depth issues at running back and wide receiver, along with inexperience at tight end after Dalton Schultz’s departure. If injuries pile up, will things go south? Can they duplicate their good fortune with net turnovers (second in 2022)? And can they win when it matters?
Philadelphia Eagles +100
Dallas Cowboys +105
Washington Commanders +1900
New York Giants +2200
🏆 Super potential: The Cowboys won 12 games last season. Their schedule got harder. While they have some concerns on offense, there is no reason to think Dallas’ defense won’t step up to the challenge. This team understands it’s a long journey. If they stay consistent, watch out.
San Francisco 49ers +650
Philadelphia Eagles +700
Kansas City Chiefs +700
Dallas Cowboys +900
💰 Cowboys Betting Insights
The Cowboys had a 9-7-1 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, eight Cowboys games went over the point total.
The Cowboys ranked 11th in the NFL in total offense with 354.9 yards per game in 2022 and 12th in total defense with 330.2 yards allowed per contest.
The Cowboys scored 467 points (27.5 per game) last season (4th of 32) and allowed 342 points (20.1, 5th of 32).
The Cowboys went 8-1 at home and 4-4 on the road.
When underdogs, the Cowboys had three victories (3-2) versus a 6-5-1 record when favored.
The Cowboys were 8-4 vs. the NFC, including 4-2 in the NFC East.
The Cowboys have an 8-5 record as underdogs at home since 2016.
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☀️ Quote du Jour: Rise and Shine Again
"I'm completely heartbroken and moving through all of the emotions, but deeply touched and humbled by the support and love. Please keep me in your thoughts and prayers as I begin the healing process today. The night is darkest before the dawn. And I shall rise yet again."
—New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, on his Instagram page, in his first public comments since his season-ending Achilles injury. Rodgers faces months of rehab after tearing his left Achilles tendon during the team's season-opening win over the Bills. Jets coach Robert Saleh and owner Woody Johnson both expect the four-time MVP to return in 2024.
🎧 Listen Up
💰 Overreaction week: Sleepy J, Uncle Dave and Steve Rieder cover the four biggest games in Week 2, player props and more.
🏟️ Sneaky good: Dalton Brown and CLE Picks get you ready for College Football Week 3 and give their best bets.
🏈 Fantasy watch: Chris Dell and Ben Martinez recap NFL Week 1 and discuss all your fantasy football needs.
📈 Number of the Day: 2
Number of times Chicago Bears wide receiver Chase Claypool was targeted by quarterback Justin Fields in Chicago's 38-20 season-opening loss to the Green Bay Packers. Both passes were incompletions, but it was Claypool's lack of effort blocking that sparked criticism after videos of his play circulated on social media. The Bears acquired Claypool from the Steelers last November for a 2023 second-round draft pick (No. 32 overall). In eight games with the Bears, Claypool has 14 catches for 140 yards. Claypool, a 2020 second-draft pick from Notre Dame, appeared in 39 games with 27 starts in three seasons in Pittsburgh, catching 153 passes for 2,044 yards and 12 touchdowns. Now he's on shaky ground with the Bears, who play at Tampa Bay in Week 2. For an entertaining rant, listen to Bears legend Dan Hampton blast the team for three minutes (0:55-3:50) in a WGN postgame show.
🧠 Sports Betting Tip
Find team beat reporters on Twitter (aka X) and set your notifications "on" for their tweets so you can see live, legitimate reports as they are being tweeted.
If you can get to that information before the sportsbooks do, you could be in line for a profitable payday.—Steve Reider, NFL, Betting Predators
Here are three reliable lists for the NFL season. Keep this handy for bets and fantasy.
Adam Levitan's "Football Only" Twitter List (great source for those who play DFS)
The @32BeatWriters Twitter Account (another source of NFL beat reporters)
NFL Team-by-Team Beat Reporters to Follow (Betting Predators book has names)
*Use code "BETNFL" for $75 OFF any Betting Predators premium package order.
👏 Betting Predators Roundup
*The Betting Predators' Week 2 Power Ratings: 49ers Rise, Chiefs Fall
*CLE's College Football Top 25, Week 3: How Far Will Texas Climb?
*CFB Betting Show: Can Penn State, Washington Thrive on the Road?
*Fred Faour's Football Betting Primer: Dolphins Are Team to Watch ATS
*Chris Dell's Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings: Anthony Richardson Time
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This newsletter was written by Eric Ortiz. Have any questions or issues? Email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com.