🏈 Viking Bruises
The winless Vikings still have playoff hopes.
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🥶 Minnesota Mild
The Minnesota Vikings have gotten off to a slow start in the win column this 2023 NFL season, but they are not giving up on their dreams.
👎 Upside-down show: The Vikings went 0-3 in September after winning 13 games last season and starting 2-1. The Vikings have lost all of their games this year by one score while committing an NFL-high nine turnovers. Their minus-13 total point differential is better than 11 NFL teams, including the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders, who have 2-1 records. Even if regression seems inevitable, the Vikings have room to grow in their quest to make the playoffs.
🌞 The bright side: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has an NFL-high 458 receiving yards, a league record for the first three weeks of a season. He also leads the team in keeping life in perspective. "At the end of the day, it's not going to be perfect every time," said Jefferson, who has 27 receptions and one receiving touchdown. "There are things that you've got to go through throughout the season to really tell if you're going to be a great team or not."
Minnesota Vikings Regular-Season Wins 2023-24
Over 6.5 Wins -120
Under 6.5 Wins +100
🍿 Changing the system: The biggest concern coming into the offseason was on the defensive side of the ball. That has not changed. Minnesota made strides to fix some of its weaknesses by releasing aging, name-brand veterans like Dalvin Tomlinson, Z’Darius Smith, and Patrick Peterson. The Vikings signed cornerback Byron Murphy, defensive end Dean Lowry, and defensive end Marcus Davenport. These changes were priced as a downgrade, and that may or may not be the case. Davenport has missed all but four snaps this season with an ankle injury.
⏳ Defense on the clock: Brian Flores is Minnesota's new defensive coordinator to replace Ed Donatell, and the Vikings’ defense should be better than last year. But they gave up 259 rushing yards to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 (including 195 yards before first contact) and 445 passing yards to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3 (allowing 41 completions on 48 pass attempts). Flores' defense is blitzing on 63 percent of dropbacks yet has the NFL's sixth-lowest pressure rate (32 percent) when blitzing. The Vikings also rank No. 26 in scoring (27.3 points per game), yards (382.3) and expected points added (-5.77). Despite those ugly numbers, head coach Kevin O'Connell has confidence Flores and his unit will get things right.
🎭 Mystery theater: Take out their 13-4 record, and the Vikings were a mediocre team last year. They finished 29th in net yards per play and 27th in DVOA, while their defense finished 30th in YPA. They finished first in blended fourth-quarter win percentage and fifth best in adjusted games lost due to injury. Add in that Minnesota lost wide receiver Adam Thielen and running back Dalvin Cook in addition to the aforementioned three defensive starters, and this Vikings team shed salary, experience, and continuity in the offseason.
💪 The hard way: The Vikings have a much more difficult schedule than last season when they finished an unprecedented 11-0 in one-score games. The six departing defensive starters may lead to future success. That's why their 0-3 is a bit of an illusion. The Vikings are not as bad as their record indicates, but they have little room for error the rest of the way.
Detroit Lions +205
Green Bay Packers +330
Minnesota Vikings +600
Chicago Bears +2500
🙏 Do or die: The Vikings are one of four winless teams in the NFL. Their Week 4 game against the Panthers will feature two of the four 0-3 teams in the NFL. The others are the Broncos and Bears, who also face each other. NFL football is a game of inches, and the Vikings are still focused on this season. So they are not trading Kirk Cousins (who has a full no-trade clause and whose contract will automatically void in March). Linebacker Danielle Hunter (who’s in the final year of his contract and leads the Vikings with five sacks) and Justin Jefferson are not going anywhere either. At least not yet. If the Vikings do not get back on track in October, all bets are off.
Minnesota Vikings +8000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8000
Las Vegas Raiders +10000
Los Angeles Rams +10000
Indianapolis Colts +13000
New York Jets +13000
Denver Broncos +13000
Carolina Panthers +20000
Chicago Bears +20000
Houston Texans +30000
Arizona Cardinals +40000
💰 Vikings Betting Insights
The Vikings had a 7-9-1 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, 11 Vikings games went over the point total.
The Vikings ranked 7th in the NFL in total offense with 361.5 yards per game in 2022 and 31st in total defense with 388.7 yards allowed per contest.
The Vikings scored 424 points (24.9 per game) last season (8th of 32) and allowed 427 points (25.1, 28th of 32).
The Vikings went 8-1 at home and 5-3 on the road.
When underdogs, the Vikings had one victory (1-4) versus a 6-5-1 record when favored.
The Vikings were 8-4 vs. the NFC, including 4-2 in the NFC North.
The Vikings have a 6-8 record as underdogs at home since 2016.
RELATED NFL STORIES ON STADIUM TALK
🚦Quote du Jour: Back to Work
"It doesn't drive me at all. Good or bad, what people are going to say is out of my control. People are going to have opinions. The beauty of sports is we can have conversations and people are passionate and care and express that.''
—Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, on returning to the lineup after missing Week 3 with an ankle injury suffered in Week 2. Young said his return has nothing to do with those who questioned his durability during the draft process.
🎧 Listen Up
💰 Lasered in: Sleepy J, Uncle Dave Essler and Steve Rieder cover the four biggest games in Week 4, player props and more.
🏟️Moving and shaking: Dalton Brown and CLE Picks get you ready for College Football Week 5 and give their best bets.
📈 Number of the Day: 906
Passing yards for Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month in September. In three games, Stroud completed 78-of-121 pass attempts (64.5 percent) and threw four touchdowns and no interceptions for a passer rating of 98.0. He ranks first in all major passing categories among rookies across the league including completions, yards, passer rating, touchdown passes, touchdown-interception ratio, and yards per attempt.
🧠 Sports Betting Tip
NFL teams that arrive in London early in the week have a tendency to be distracted.
They are in a new country with lots of places to see and things to do. By showing up later in the week, or the day of the game, there isn't as much time for distraction.—Steve Reider, NFL, Betting Predators
Bookmark these three reliable NFL lists on X for bets and fantasy.
Adam Levitan's "Football Only" X List (great source for those who also play DFS)
The @32BeatWriters X Account (another source for compiled NFL beat reporters)
NFL Team-by-Team Beat Reporters to Follow (Betting Predators book has names/links)
👏 Betting Predators Roundup
*The Betting Predators' Week 4 Power Ratings: Are the Browns a Top 10 Team?
*CLE's College Football Top 25, Week 5: Florida State Falls Despite Win
*College Football Week 5 Betting Show: Will Colorado Rebound vs. USC?
*Chris Dell's Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings: Lamar Jackson at No. 3
*Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Favorites Week 4: Can Keenan Allen Remain Elite?
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This newsletter was written by Eric Ortiz, the head of content and strategy for Big Edition, a digital media company with five brands, including Stadium Talk. If you want to advertise your brand in this newsletter, contact Eric at eric.ortiz@bigedition.com. Have any other questions or issues? Email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com.