🐬 Beware of Dolphins
The Dolphins might be the best team in the AFC.
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🏈 Miami Nice
The Miami Dolphins have gotten off to a strong start and could be one of the best teams in the NFL this season.
☀️ Reasons for optimism: They rank No. 1 in total offense in the NFL after two weeks, averaging 462.5 yards per game and 30.0 points. When healthy, Miami was incredible last year. In the 12 games that Tua Tagovailoa started and finished, the Dolphins ranked No. 2 in EPA on offense and scored 29 or more points in half of those contests.
🔥 Flying Phins: Tyreek Hill was an amazing addition for the Dolphins in 2022, ranking No. 1 among all NFL receivers with 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns. Fellow wideout, Jaylen Waddle, also produced 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns. They have started out fast again, with 24 catches, 419 yards, and four touchdowns combined. With Braxton Berrios in the slot and not losing a starter, Miami’s offense has a chance to be elite in the league.
👀 To D or not to D: The Dolphins’ defense is still a work in progress. They rank 24th in total defense and gave up 51 points and 721 total yards to open the season. But they opened 2-0 and should grow. With Vic Fangio replacing defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, expect this unit to limit explosive plays and be more effective.
🏥 Health matters: Tua’s injury history is what keeps the Dolphin faithful up at night. He is electric when he’s right, but he took a beating last year with some excruciating hits. Mike White was brought in to back him up should he get hurt. White, although serviceable, is a big step down from Teddy Bridgewater.
💪 Tough tests: The other major concern is Miami’s daunting schedule. The Dolphins face the third-most difficult schedule this year and are currently operating in one of the most difficult divisions in the league.
Miami Dolphins +105
Buffalo Bills +120
New England Patriots +1200
New York Jets +1500
🏆 Watch out: The Dolphins are well-coached and have a lot of talent. On offense, they might be the most explosive unit in the NFL with speed at the skill position to terrify opposing defenses. Miami has not won a Super Bowl since 1973, when the Dolphins won back-to-back titles. But if they can stay healthy, they are a contender to win it all in February.
San Francisco 49ers +650
Kansas City Chiefs +700
Philadelphia Eagles +750
Dallas Cowboys +750
Buffalo Bills +1000
Miami Dolphins +1300
💰 Dolphins Betting Insights
The Dolphins had a 9–8 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, eight Dolphins games went over the point total.
The Dolphins ranked 6th in the NFL in total offense with 364.5 yards per game in 2022 and 18th in total defense with 337.8 yards allowed per contest.
The Dolphins scored 397 points (23.4 per game) last season (11th of 32) and allowed 399 points (23.5, 24th of 32).
The Dolphins went 6-2 at home and 3-6 on the road.
When underdogs, the Dolphins had four victories (4-3) versus a 5-5 record when favored.
The Dolphins were 7-5 vs. the AFC, including 3-3 in the AFC East.
The Dolphins have an 18-17 record as underdogs at home since 2016.
RELATED NFL STORIES ON STADIUM TALK
⌚Quote du Jour: Respect
"I have a tremendous amount of respect for Deion Sanders. First, he's a great person and he's done a great job of marketing the program to create a lot of national interest. But I see their team playing well on the field. They play with discipline, they do a good job of executing, they've been able to score points, playing decent on defense. So all those things, to me, are indicators that he's a really good coach."
—Alabama coach Nick Saban on the success of Deion Sanders as a college football coach. Sanders has led Colorado to a 3-0 start this season, his first year leading the Buffaloes, after going 27-6 in three seasons at Jackson State, his first college coaching experience.
🎧 Listen Up
💰 Big week: Sleepy J, Uncle Dave and Steve Rieder cover the four biggest games in Week 3, player props and more.
🏟️ College work: Dalton Brown and CLE Picks get you ready for College Football Week 4 and give their best bets.
📈 Number of the Day: 1,874
Number of rushing yards Kareem Hunt had with the Cleveland Browns from 2019 to 2022. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry and scored 16 rushing touchdowns. He also caught 132 passes for 973 yards and seven more scores. Hunt returns to the Browns to help in their backfield after Nick Chubb's season-ending knee injury.
🧠 Sports Betting Tip
Look at power ratings.
All of my regular season handicapping starts with my power ratings. They are by far the most valuable piece of information I consider each week when starting to choose my best bets to make.—Steve Rieder, NFL, Betting Predators
Here are three reliable Twitter (aka X) lists for this NFL season. Keep them handy for bets and fantasy.
Adam Levitan's "Football Only" Twitter List (great source for those who also play DFS)
The @32BeatWriters Twitter Account (another source for compiled NFL beat reporters)
NFL Team-by-Team Beat Reporters to Follow (Betting Predators book has names/links)
👏 Betting Predators Roundup
*The Betting Predators' Week 3 Power Ratings: 49ers on Top
*CLE's College Football Top 25, Week 4: Tennessee Takes a Tumble
*Chris Dell's Week 2 Fantasy Football Rankings: Anthony Richardson Moves Up to QB1
*Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Fallout: Week 3 Waiver Adds, Cut Candidates and Trade Targets
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This newsletter was written by Eric Ortiz. Have any questions or issues? Email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com.