💪 CMC for MVP
San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is on pace for history.
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🏈 San Francisco Treat
The San Francisco 49ers look like the team to beat in the NFL, and running back Christian McCaffrey is a big reason why.
🎯 Right this way: Christian McCaffrey can do it all. He has 459 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns on 80 rushing attempts in the 49ers' first four games this season, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 114.8 yards per game. He also has 18 receptions for 141 yards and one receiving touchdown. That's 7.8 yards per reception and 35.3 receiving yards per game. Add it all up, and McCaffrey has 600 total yards from scrimmage (150 yards per game), on pace for 2,500 total yards, and the 49ers are even stronger than expected.
San Francisco 49ers Regular-Season Wins 2023-24
Over 12.5 Wins -130
Under 12.5 Wins +110
✅ All-purpose beast: This could be a historic season for McCaffrey. The NFL record for most yards from scrimmage in a single season is 2,509 yards by running back Chris Johnson with the Tennessee Titans in 2009. McCaffrey's strong early output has him in the NFL MVP conversation, and he could become the first non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP since 2012, when Minnesota Vikings running Adrian Peterson took home the title.
Josh Allen +380
Tua Tagovailoa +500
Patrick Mahomes +550
Jalen Hurts +700
Lamar Jackson +1100
Justin Herbert +1800
Christian McCaffrey +2000
Brock Purdy +2000
🔥 Bringing the heat: Big numbers are nothing new for McCaffrey, who has 9,082 yards from scrimmage in his career. Since being drafted out of Stanford in the first round (eighth overall) by the Carolina Panthers in the 2017 NFL draft, McCaffrey has been a versatile weapon. In his rookie season, he had 1,086 yards from scrimmage. In 2019, he had 2,392 yards from scrimmage and became the third player in NFL history to have 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. Roger Craig (1985 49ers) and Marshall Faulk (1999 St. Louis Rams) are the others.
San Francisco 49ers -550
Seattle Seahawks +550
Los Angeles Rams +1300
Arizona Cardinals +7000
🍿In good company: McCaffrey has scored at least one touchdown in 13 consecutive games (including the playoffs), a 49ers franchise record, and already is top 150 in NFL history for career yards from scrimmage. Two of the top four are 49ers legends, Jerry Rice (23,549 yards) at No. 1 all-time and Frank Gore (19,985 yards) at No. 4. And with at least 600 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns in his first four games this season, McCaffrey joins Hall of Famers Jim Brown (1963 and 1958) and Emmitt Smith (1995) as the only other NFL players in history to accomplish the feat.
🥷 Steal of the century: The 49ers acquired McCaffrey from the Panthers on Oct. 20, 2022, for a 2023 second-round pick (61st overall subsequently traded, Brenton Strange), a 2023 third-round pick (93rd overall subsequently traded, Darnell Washington), a 2023 fourth-round pick (132nd overall subsequently traded, Nick Herbig), and a 2024 fifth-round pick. That’s what you call a fleecing.
🏆 Super-duper powers: Since McCaffrey became the starter for the 49ers on Oct. 30, 2022, he has played in 14 regular-season games and has 1,748 scrimmage yards in those games (all wins). That number leads the NFL and is the second-most yards from scrimmage during a 14-game winning streak, trailing only Hall of Fame Denver Broncos running back Terrell Davis (1,849 in 1997-98), who played with McCaffrey's father, Ed, on those Broncos teams and won back-to-back Super Bowls. Don't be surprised if Christian McCaffrey leads the 49ers to their sixth Super Bowl championship real soon.
San Francisco 49ers +550
Kansas City Chiefs +550
Buffalo Bills +750
Philadelphia Eagles +750
Dallas Cowboys +1000
Miami Dolphins +1000
Baltimore Ravens +1600
Detroit Lions +1800
💰 49ers Betting Insights
The 49ers had an 11-6 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, nine 49ers games went over the point total.
The 49ers ranked 5th in the NFL in total offense with 355.6 yards per game in 2022 and 1st in total defense with 300.6 yards allowed per contest.
The 49ers scored 450 points (26.5 per game) last season (6th of 32) and allowed 277 points (16.3, 1st of 32).
The 49ers went 8-1 at home and 5-3 on the road.
When underdogs, the 49ers had one victory (1-1) versus a 10-5 record when favored.
The 49ers were 10-2 vs. the NFC, including 6-0 in the NFC West.
The 49ers have an 8-15 record as underdogs at home since 2016.
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😬 Quote du Jour: Sense of Urgency
"We haven't had a road win yet. We pride ourselves on the road on playing really good football, good defense, good scheme. We need it for morale, we need it for our ranking, we need it for everything."
—Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow on their Week 5 road contest against the Arizona Cardinals being a must-win game. The Bengals (1-3) are in last place in the AFC North.
🎧 Listen Up
💰 Full speed ahead: Sleepy J, Uncle Dave Essler and Steve Rieder cover the four biggest games in Week 5, player props and more.
🏟️Buckle in: Dalton Brown and CLE Picks get you ready for College Football Week 6 and give their best bets.
📈 Number of the Day: 2.5
Average yards per rush for New York Jets running back Dalvin Cook. That ranks 48th among 48 qualified runners in the NFL for the former Minnesota Viking, who signed a one-year, $7 million contract in the preseason and has rushed for only 74 yards on 30 carries with the Jets.
🧠 Sports Betting Tip
It is often advantageous to bet late.
Over 90 percent of a book’s handle on an NFL game comes on the weekend. The public often overwhelmingly bets one side of a game, pushes the line, and creates value. This is a great opportunity for a contrarian play. Fading the public has made many people rich.—Steve Reider, NFL, Betting Predators
Here are three reliable X lists for this NFL season. Keep them handy for bets and fantasy.
Adam Levitan's "Football Only" Twitter List (great source for those who also play DFS)
The @32BeatWriters Twitter Account (another source for compiled NFL beat reporters)
NFL Team-by-Team Beat Reporters to Follow (Betting Predators book has names/links)
👏 Betting Predators Roundup
*The Betting Predators' Week 5 Power Ratings: Giants Are a Bottom 4 Team
*CLE's Week 6 College Football Over/Under Best Bet: Red River Rivalry Time
*CLE's College Football Top 25, Week 6: Is Michigan Really the Nation's Best Team?
*NFL Week 5 Betting Cheat Sheet: OL/DL Run Blocking and Pass Rush Mismatches
*Chris Dell's Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings: Joshua Dobbs Opening Eyes With Cardinals
*Post-Gazette Week 5 Fantasy Football: Waiver Adds, Cut Candidates and Trade Targets
💡Coming Soon
*Listen: NFL Player Props Show With Sleepy and Chris Dell
*NFL Week 5 Prime-Time Sunday Night Football/Monday Night Football Best Bet
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This newsletter was written by Eric Ortiz, the head of content and strategy for Big Edition, a digital media company with five brands, including Stadium Talk. If you want to advertise your brand in this newsletter, contact Eric at eric.ortiz@bigedition.com. Have any other questions or issues? Email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com.