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Our NFL Premium Subscriber Package was created to give you the highest-quality betting and player prop analysis. We help you save time, win money, and become a long-term profitable sports bettor. We are up more than +52.64 units since launching and +19 units so far in 2023. Our team of sports handicappers and betting analysts, led by Steve Rieder and Chris Dell, deliver real-time best bets and player props so you can CRUSH your sportsbook.
🏈 Texans on the Rise
The Houston Texans have been one of the NFL’s most surprising teams this season. They’re just getting started.
🙌 Rising up: Nobody expected much from the Texans this year. But with big wins over the Jaguars and Steelers and a near-win against the Falcons, Houston is moving up the charts. Thanks to a great start from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans are one of 16 teams in the league with a positive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), ranking 16th in total team DVOA at 2.3 percent. They are hungry for more success.
Houston Texans Regular-Season Wins 2023-24
Over 7.5 Wins -140
Under 7.5 Wins +115
🎯 The real deal: C.J. Stroud was the NFL offensive rookie of the month in September and now is the favorite to be the offensive rookie of the year. In five games, Stroud has completed 114-of-186 pass attempts (61.3 percent) for 1,461 yards, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions (an NFL record to start a career) for a passer rating of 98.4. The second-overall pick out of Ohio State is ahead of schedule and might be better than advertised.
C.J. Stroud +120
Puka Nacua +350
Bijan Robinson +350
Zay Flowers +2000
Jordan Addison +2000
Sam LaPorta +2800
🍿 Pressure players: Football teams that find success on third down often find success overall. After ranking 31st (30.3 percent) in third-down conversions in 2022, the Texans rank seventh this year. The other six teams in front of them are the Buccaneers, 49ers, Bills, Cowboys, Eagles and Chiefs. Pretty good company.
☀️ Brand-new ballgame: Another big reason for optimism is DeMeco Ryans. The first-year head coach, former NFL linebacker (Texans, Eagles), and Alabama All-American replaced Lovie Smith, who led the Texans to three wins in 2022, Houston’s third straight season with four or fewer wins. Ryans has brought enthusiasm and industriousness to the team. He believes the team is close to being a contender, and his positive energy is becoming contagious.
🏆 Creating a winning culture: The Texans are turning weaknesses into strengths. Look at their offensive line. After allowing 11 sacks in their first two games, they have allowed no sacks in three straight games. Their defense was a far cry from what DeMeco Ryan had as the 49ers defensive coordinator. But the Texans are allowing only 20.0 points per game (11th in the NFL) and 338.8 yards (18th). The run game still has room to grow, averaging 82.6 yards per game (27th) on 27.2 carries per game, for a mere 3.0 yards per carry average (31st). It's not easy to turn around a losing program. That's what the Texans are doing.
Jacksonville Jaguars -110
Tennessee Titans +350
Indianapolis Colts +390
Houston Texans +450
💰 Texans Betting Insights
The Texans had an 8-8-1 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, seven Texans games went over the point total.
The Texans ranked 31st in the NFL in total offense with 283.5 yards per game in 2022 and 29th in total defense with 379.5 yards allowed per contest.
The Texans scored 289 points (17.0 per game) last season (30th of 32) and allowed 420 points (24.7, 27th of 32).
The Texans went 0-7-1 at home and 3-6 on the road.
When underdogs, the Texans had eight victories (8-8-1). They were never favored.
The Texans were 3-8-1 vs. the NFC, including 3-2-1 in the AFC South.
The Texans have a 6-22-1 record as underdogs at home since 2016.
RELATED NFL STORIES ON STADIUM TALK
🙏 Quote du Jour: Next Man Up
"He’s a football junkie, loves ball, wants to be great."
—Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen on having confidence in quarterback Gardner Minshew taking over as the starter for Anthony Richardson, who went on injured reserve with a sprained AC joint in his right throwing shoulder and could be out 4-8 weeks after suffering the injury in Indy's win over the Titans on Oct. 8. Minshew has appeared in four Colts game this season and been solid in relief of Richardson, completing 57-of-83 passes (68.7 percent) for 553 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 95.1.
🎧 Listen Up
💰 Let's go: Sleepy J, Uncle Dave Essler and Steve Rieder cover the four biggest NFL games in Week 6, player props and more.
🏟️ Playing to win: Dalton Brown and CLE Picks get you ready for College Football Week 7 and give their best bets.
📈 Number of the Day: 22.01
Miles per hour reached by Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill on a 64-yard reception against the New York Giants, the fastest registered ballcarrier speed in the NFL this season. Hill has caught 36 passes for a league-leading 651 yards. His 130.2 receiving yards per game average has him on pace to become the first NFL player to produce 2,000 receiving yards in a season. Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson set the record with the Lions in 2012 with 1,964 yards.
🧠 Sports Betting Tip
Shop the lines with multiple sportsbooks.
Opening up different applications, searching for the game, and comparing lines before betting is a huge time waster. But this tedious, exhausting practice is a money saver. Saving a half a point or some juice will pay huge dividends in the long run.—Steve Rieder, NFL, Betting Predators
Here are three reliable NFL lists on X. Keep them handy for bets and fantasy.
Adam Levitan's "Football Only" Twitter List (great source for those who also play DFS)
The @32BeatWriters Twitter Account (another source for compiled NFL beat reporters)
NFL Team-by-Team Beat Reporters to Follow (Betting Predators book has names/links)
👏 Betting Predators Roundup
*The Betting Predators' Week 6 Power Ratings: Should the 49ers Be Super Bowl LVIII Favorites?
*CLE's College Football Top 25, Week 7: Do OSU and FSU Deserve First-Place Votes?
*Watch: College Football Week 7 Best Bests, Picks, and Predictions
*NFL Week 6 Betting Cheat Sheet: OL/DL Run Blocking and Pass Rush Mismatches
*Chris Dell's Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings: Josh Allen Up to QB1
*Post-Gazette Week 6 Fantasy Football: Waiver Adds, Cut Candidates and Trade Targets
💡Coming Soon
*Listen: NFL Player Props Week 6 Show With Sleepy and Chris Dell
*Mackenzie Rivers’ NFL Week 6 Prime-Time Sunday Night Football/Monday Night Football Best Bet
*CLE's Week 7 College Football Over/Under Best Bet
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I will be on vacation from Oct. 19-28, and there won’t be any newsletters on Oct. 20 and Oct. 27. The newsletter will resume Nov. 3. Happy hunting.
This newsletter was written by Eric Ortiz, the head of content and strategy for Big Edition, a digital media company with five brands, including Stadium Talk. If you want to advertise your brand in this newsletter, contact Eric at eric.ortiz@bigedition.com. Have any other questions or issues? Email us at bettingpredators@gmail.com.