🏈 New Jax City
Watch out for the Jaguars this NFL season.
Happy Friday. It's Eric.
🎙️ Beat street: Aug. 11 is Hip-Hop Day. Hip-hop turns 50, and it all started with DJ Kool Herc at a party in the Bronx. Celebrate with your jam.
🎶 Sounds like: "Started From the Bottom" by Drake
This newsletter is 1,159 words — a 5-minute read.
💪 QUICK HITS
🏟️ The Jaguars are ready to make some more noise.
🤔 Are the Cowboys trying to fix something that’s not broken?
🏆 Mike Vrabel turned a great idea into reality with the Titans.
🐆 Beware of Jaguars
Jacksonville got a taste of success at the end of the 2022 NFL season. The Jaguars aren't satisfied, and they have more firepower.
👏 Building on success: There are reasons to be optimistic. Urban Meyer is long gone, and after starting last season 3-7, including 1-6 in one-score games, the Jaguars finished 6-1 and 3-0 in one-score games and had their greatest playoff victory in franchise history. Head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence have found a winning formula.
Jacksonville Jaguars Regular-Season Wins 2023-24
Over 9.5 Wins -140
Under 9.5 Wins +120
🔥 Big-time weapons: The Jaguars offense ranked top 10 in expected points added (EPA) per play and pass EPA last season. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back from a one-year suspension, with wideouts Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, tight end Evan Engram, and running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. This gives Lawrence plenty of options to open up the playbook.
🎯 Underrated No. 1: Trevor Lawrence was the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft. Entering his third season, he’s undervalued. As Tony Squares and Chris Dell discuss on their new fantasy football podcast, Lawrence is in the eighth spot in average draft position (ADP) for quarterbacks, two spots behind Justin Fields and one behind Justin Herbert.
Patrick Mahomes +700
Joe Burrow +750
Josh Allen +800
Jalen Hurts +1100
Justin Herbert +1200
Trevor Lawrence +1500
Lamar Jackson +1500
Aaron Rodgers +1600
✅ Fantasy vs. reality: If you want to win your fantasy league, check out more football analysis from Squares and Dell, a Betting Predators founder and new Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sports editor and fantasy analyst. In the first episode of their Fantasy Football Favorites weekly show, they talk about Dell's 10 commandments of fantasy football and draft strategies. Enjoy more Betting Predators insights on ESPN 97.5’s "Late Hits" show, which goes live at 9:15 pm ET weeknights on ESPN Radio.
🥶 Not so fast: Everything is not all sunshine and rainbows. The Jaguars have question marks on the offensive line and defense. Right tackle Walter Little is a key lineman. Two players to watch on defense are defensive end Adam Gotsis and safety Andrew Wingard. If everything clicks in the trenches and on D, watch out.
🍿 Superpowers: According to Warren Sharp, the Jaguars have the 12th-easiest schedule in the NFL (after a top-five easiest schedule last year). It's hard to predict what happens on the field. But Lawrence won two Georgia state championships in high school and won a national championship at Clemson as a freshman. He’s a winner.
Kansas City Chiefs +600
Philadelphia Eagles +650
Buffalo Bills +900
San Francisco 49ers +1000
Cincinnati Bengals +1100
Dallas Cowboys +1400
New York Jets +1600
Baltimore Ravens +1800
Detroit Lions +2200
Miami Dolphins +2500
Los Angeles Chargers +2500
Jacksonville Jaguars +3000
💰 Jacksonville Betting Insights
Jacksonville had an 8-8-1 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, nine Jaguars games went over the point total.
Jacksonville ranked 10th in the NFL in total offense with 357.4 yards per game in 2022 and 24th in total defense with 353.3 yards allowed per contest.
The Jaguars scored 404 points (23.8 per game) last season (10th of 32) and allowed 350 points (20.6, 12th of 32).
The Jaguars went 5-3 at home and 4-5 on the road.
When underdogs, Jacksonville had seven victories (7-4-1) versus a 1-4 record when favored.
The Jaguars were 8-4 vs. the AFC, including 4-2 in the AFC South.
The Jaguars have a 15-22 record as underdogs at home since 2016.
RELATED NFL STORIES ON STADIUM TALK
🏀 Quote du Jour: Center of Attention
"Not for me. He’s 15 to 20 if he’s lucky. I mean, he’s overrated. … Shaq is indifferent to rebounding. He never led the league in rebounding. That’s just an amazing thing."
Sports journalist Bob Ryan, on an episode of a CLNS podcast with Gary Tanquay and Jeff Goodman, responding to claims that Shaquille O'Neal is a top 10 center in NBA history
👀 How About These Cowboys?
The biggest concern for the Dallas Cowboys comes on offense. Dallas dismissed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore after his offense was top-six twice and finished second in red zone efficiency last season. The Cowboys played fast, but new OC Brian Schottenheimer and head coach Mike McCarthy want to slow their offense down.
For more on the Cowboys, check out the Betting Predators e-book preview.
Dallas Cowboys Regular-Season Wins 2023-24
Over 10.5 Wins +115
Under 10.5 Wins -135
🎧 Listen Up
⛳️ Oh, yeah: Betting Predators podcast host SleepyJ and Uncle Dave Essler talk FedEx St. Jude Championship and give their picks.
📈 Number of the Day: $3,000-$7,000
That's the average annual cost to play on a youth club soccer team in the United States. According to Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke, U.S. soccer will keep losing in international competition until they change their pay-to-play structure.
🧠 Sports Betting Tip
Regardless of position, look to fade teams with cluster injuries in the preseason.
Identifying cluster injuries in the regular season is typically an area that is not accounted for in the marketplace. This angle is magnified in the preseason, when teams no longer care about winning and risking further injuries to a depleted group.—Steve Reider, NFL, Betting Predators
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👍 Remember the Titans
Tennessee Titans defensive line coach Terrell Williams will serve as the head coach for the team's preseason opener against the Chicago Bears. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel gave Williams this opportunity to spotlight his coaching and leadership abilities. This is a big NFL moment and could open the door for more assistants to be full-time head coaches.
Tennessee Titans Regular-Season Wins 2023-24
Over 7.5 Wins -125
Under 7.5 Wins +105
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