🍿Not in the Cards
Arizona could have the NFL's worst team.
Happy Friday. It's Eric.
🌎 Root for your country: July 28 is National Soccer Day. Enjoy the Women's World Cup.
🎶 Sounds like: "Live Is Life" by Opus (the Diego Maradona version).
This newsletter is 1,126 words — a 5-minute read.
💪 QUICK HITS
🏈 It might be an extra long year for the Arizona Cardinals.
⚾ The Atlanta Braves are still the team to beat in baseball.
🌲 Troy Taylor is rebuilding the football culture at Stanford.
🙏 Winning Made Difficult
This season could get ugly for the Arizona Cardinals. They have a rookie head coach, a franchise quarterback recovering from a torn ACL, and a roster with holes. That's not a recipe for success in the NFL.
👀 Quarterback watch: It's hard to win in today's NFL without a top-flight quarterback. The Cardinals thought they had one when they drafted Kyler Murray with the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft. The jury is still out on Murray, who is 25-31-1 in 57 pro starts and sidelined until his surgically repaired right knee is ready. Until then, it’s the Colt McCoy show. The rest of the Cardinals quarterbacks are rookie Clayton Tune, David Blough, and Jeff Driskel.
⏳ Another new era: Former Philadephia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon replaces Kliff Kingsbury as Cardinals head coach. After Philly's defense broke down and got cooked by the Kansas City Chiefs in last season's Super Bowl, some people were surprised Gannon got the job in Arizona. Eagles fans said good riddance. Gannon is no Kliff Kingsbury, and Kingsbury is now an assistant coach at USC. How long before Cardinals fans want Kingsbury back? Or Bruce Arians.
👊 Don't call it tanking: Nobody wants to believe a season is over before it starts. Although safety Budda Baker reworked his deal to stick around the desert, and Arizona has a few other bright spots (see: safety Jalen Thompson, a strong offensive line, skill players like Marquise Brown, Trey McBride, and James Conner), the odds are stacked against the Cardinals.
To win the Super Bowl: +20000
To win the NFC: +10000
To win the NFC West: +2500
Regular-season win total: 4.5 (+100 over/-120 under)
Kyler Murray MVP odds: +15000
✅ On the clock for 2024: First-year Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort has been in the NFL for 21 years (including 15 seasons with the New England Patriots). He knows what it takes to win Super Bowls. Whatever happens in 2023, the Cardinals have a promising future with two first-round picks in the 2024 NFL draft, a second-round pick, two third-rounders, a fourth-rounder, two fifths and a seventh-round choice.
👏 Play it smart: The Cardinals have an 18 percent chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. That's better than their odds of making the playoffs (+1100) this year. The smartest play might be to sit Murray, even if he's healthy, and look ahead.
💰 Arizona Betting Insights
Arizona had an 8-9-0 record against the spread in 2022.
Last season, nine Cardinals games went over the point total.
Arizona ranked 22nd in the NFL in total offense with 323.5 yards per game in 2022 and 21st in total defense with 348.9 yards allowed per contest.
The Cardinals scored 340 points (20.0 per game) last season (21st of 32) and allowed 449 points (26.4, 31st of 32).
The Cardinals went 1-8 at home and 3-5 on the road.
When underdogs, Arizona had three victories (3-11) versus a 1-2 record when favored.
The Cardinals were 3-9 in the NFC, including 1-5 in the NFC West.
The Cardinals have a 7-21-1 record as underdogs at home since 2016.
RELATED FOOTBALL STORIES ON STADIUM TALK
🏦 Quote du Jour: Community Growth
"I appreciate the investment and the commitment from the Celtics. That commitment will be felt from me here in Boston on and off the floor."
Boston Celtics star Jaylen Brown, on investing in the local community, after signing a five-year, $307.5 million supermax extension, the richest deal in NBA history. Brown wants to launch a project to bring "Black Wall Street" to Boston and help close the racial wealth gap in the city. Black Wall Street was a district in Tulsa, Oklahoma, during the early 1900s. It was one of the most economically affluent areas for Black Americans before it was destroyed during the 1921 race massacre.
🏆 Balanced Braves
The Angels made headlines by going into buy mode at the trade deadline and keeping Shohei Ohtani. But they have longer odds of winning the World Series now (+6500) than they did a month ago (+3500). The favorites to win everything are still the Atlanta Braves, who have the most balanced team in the majors and the third-highest run differential at +140. Only the Tampa Bay Rays (+141) and Texas Rangers (+157) have better.
Atlanta Braves +300
Los Angeles Dodgers +450
Tampa Bay Rays +600
Houston Astros +800
Texas Rangers +1000
🎧 Listen Up
🔥 Fantasy time: Tony Squares and Chris Dell get down to business with fantasy football top 5 buys and best bets.
⛳️ Stick to it: Betting Predators podcast host SleepyJ and Uncle Dave Essler talk 3M Open.
📈 Number of the Day: $52.5 million
That's how much Los Angeles Charger quarterback Justin Herbert will be making per year after signing a new five-year, $262.5 million deal with the team, making him the highest-paid NFL player in 2023 and one of the highest-paid active athletes in the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL.
🧠 Sports Betting Tip
Identify NFL teams that have the motivation to win in the preseason.
Find the motivated teams and exploit the opportunity, especially if you can find one motivated team vs. another that is "fat and happy." —Steve Reider, NFL, Betting Predators
🏟️ Revival on the Farm
Nobody expects much from Stanford football. They rank at the bottom of most Pac-12 and national rankings and have been terrible the last two seasons, going 3-9 twice with three conference wins total. But new Stanford football coach Troy Taylor has a history of success and turning around programs. Stanford isn't Sacramento State, but don't be surprised if he builds a winning culture sooner than expected.
Stanford Regular-Season Wins 2023
Under 2.5 wins +138
Over 2.5 wins -172
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I wrote a similar piece of how poor Arizona will be this year. Be sure to check it out! Great stuff by you guys as always